Bocamix too big

Trying again to get a value bet run well. Dirar looks interesting in a Leopardstown handicap hurdle and the Finale hurdle at Chepstow looks to have a value angle.

2:45 Chepstow:
Back Bocamix EW(12-1 generally)

3:10 Leopardstown:
Back Dirar(7-1 generally)

Fosters Cross too big

At 14-1 with Paddy Power, Fosters Cross is just too big for the Irish novice chase. Sizing Europe is a worthy favourite and it's a competitive affair, but Fosters Cross has shown useful form and is worth a bet:
2:20 Leopardstown
Back Fosters Cross

It's an Irish flavour today and a short-price double is worth having on :
1:20 Leopardstown - Alaivan
&
2:30 Kempton - Go Native

They are probably the best horses in their respective races by some way, and yes that means that I believe Binocular is over-rated...

Make it a Merri' Xmas

Not a particularly big price, but there seems to be a Christmas bonus plotted in the 3:25 Southwell:
Back Merrion Tiger(around 2-1)

A Fibresand specialist who came back to form with a good win last time. Back in Class 6, there's no reason to think he won't follow up, having won off a higher mark in the past.

Time to Close 'Brown'

The first post of this blog was a buy on Sporting's spread of Brown's days as premier. It is now time to close out the position at 1035. Having bought at 955, that's a healthy profit of +80, and there's whispers of a March general election.
Close (sell at 1035)

Might be some decent bets over the Xmas period, if the meetings all go ahead.

Pandorama too big

1:20 Fairyhouse:
Back Pandorama(5-1)

In the rescheduled 1:20 at Fairyhouse on Wednesday, Pandorama is a good price at 5-1. As a hurdler, only beaten by Mikael D'Haguenet and bested by Cousin Vinny(until the final flight). Showed a good engine to do well in his chase debut. Jumped left, and lost ground to Clan Tara, but battled back well to win with more in hand than the neck margin implies.

Even with the worry about his leftward jumping, his engine and heavy ground conditions mean he's too big at 5-1.

Vaughn's World to win again...

OK... Haven't put one up for a while but I like this one today in the 4:40 Stratford:
Back War of the Worlds (7-2 generally)

Improved as Tim Vaughan's debutants typically do to win a chase in good style. Can follow up...

Dan Breen to pay penalty

There seems to be a good lay opportunity in the

4:40 Newton Abbot:
Lay Dan Breen(up to 2.5)

Basically, horses find it difficult to follow up under penalties in these NH Flat races, so at current odds of 2.3, I think this would be a good lay.

Ave, Caesar, morituri te salutant!

So said the gladiators before engaging in mortal combat for the Emperor's entertainment.

Luckily this business of laying horses is nowhere as dangerous, but there are close shaves when I swear my entrails are about to leave my body. Goriness aside, there is a decent lay in the

4:05 Salisbury:
Lay Ave(up to 3.0)

This filly has shown her best form on soft ground, and over shorter trips. Even with a soft lead over 10f last time, she didn't look resolute. With a field of fair opposition, it's not going to be easy to win on fast ground unless she finds significant improvement. The forecast is for a light drizzle in the afternoon, but that shouldn't be enough to cause major easing in the ground.

She is trained by master trainer Michael Stoute. The thing is: that's why she's short-priced! But 2-1 or less means I'm willing to oppose her over this trip on this ground.

Grounds for opposition...

There's a horse to lay in the

6:55 Nottingham:
Lay Dorback(odds-on)
Won well on debut and the form has worked out, hence the short odds. The ground was good-to-firm that day, so basically has to act on a totally different type of surface today though.
At odds-on, should be a value lay.

So far, all lay suggestions on the blog have been beaten, so I'm hoping the good run can continue.

Fibresand is something else...

Today, there is a lay to be had on the Fibresand at Southwell. This surface is one that some horses run much better on, and conversely, some horses simply don't enjoy it.

2:45 Southwell:
Lay Duster(up to 2.0)
Showed good speed at Lingfield on debut, and this drop back to 6f could indeed suit her. However she'll didn't handle the bend at all that day, and with Southwell being left-handed as well, if this horse has a problem with the bend again, it'll be difficult for her to win.
Add in the possibility of her not taking as well to this surface, and at odds-on, I'm willing to oppose her.


As for the cricket, shame England performed so dismally in the 4th Test match, but I fear that unless there is a return to fitness of the talismanic Flintoff, the Aussies could actually win the series now.

Politics looking quite dead now, as the summer recess is underway. Really depressing to see such a generally undeserving lot on a 12 week break, sunning themselves in luxury destinations.
Oh well...

Lay. Back. And take it easy...

Ok some horse-racing tips for Friday 7th.

1) 3:40 Lingfield:
Lay Farmer Giles(up to 3.3)
He may have competition for the lead in Lady Royal Oak, and the others are quite useful.

2) 3:50 Worcester:
Lay Tot of the Knar (up to 2.7)
Doesn't look a natural jumper over fences and stablemate Carrick Oscar as well as Tony Mckoy's mount Donaldson may present a stern test.

3) 4:20 Worcester:
Back Little Shilling (7-1 generally)
This was Tim Vaughan's flagship horse last season before mid-division in the conditionals' handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He weakened up the famous hill that day after taking up the running up at the 6th flight. Hopefully he will retain all the ability that allowed him to win 6 on the bounce, and any possible improvement means that 7-1 is too big.

A New Direction

Ok, now to finally start some serious blogging. I'll attempt to point out some of the best bets available focussing on horse-racing, cricket, and politics.

We'll start off today by buying the special spread offered by Sporting Index on Gordon Brown's days as PM:
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/?MeetingID=3424283&Split=1

A buy at 955 makes plenty of appeal considering that Brown is not the sort to give up his premiership having survived the PLP summit at Westminster. Also there is the summer recess during which there is no likely political fireworks. This only adds a number of days to which Brown would be free of any serious challenge.

In fact I would not be at all surprised to see him hang on until the general election.